As Texans adjust to life under orders to stay at home during the new coronavirus pandemic — and scramble to cover expenses with incomes that were drastically cut or abruptly shut off — housing and real estate experts say it’s hard to predict what the parallel public health and economic crises will do to home values and sales.

A lot depends on how long the twin troubles last.

“We definitely will have a slowdown, but the question is how much and how long,” said Scott Norman, executive director of the Texas Association of Builders.

That’s a sudden about-face for what had been, until now, one of the most dynamic real estate markets in the country. The state has had five consecutive years breaking records in terms of numbers of houses sold and median prices, according to Texas Realtors. And Texas’ homebuilding industry has been solid, too; no other state had more building permits in 2019, according to census data.

Luis Torres, an economist with the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, said that the housing sector can be a barometer for the economy as a whole because it affects jobs of laborers, builders, realtors and a litany of other professions.

“And it has a multiplier effect into the rest of the economy, from moving companies to furniture stores,” Torres said.

Already, experts are seeing slowdowns in home showings — which are now largely done virtually — and expect that permits for new construction might also drop. For regions whose residents rely largely on the energy industry for work, like Houston or the Permian Basin, or on cross-border trade, like the Rio Grande Valley, home values and sales may dip more than in other Texas regions. And those areas may take longer to recover, too.

In Houston, there are already fewer people putting homes on the market, but home values among houses sold have actually improved. According to the Houston Association of Realtors, new home listings of single-family homes decreased 4.8% last month when compared with March 2019. But, at the same time, home prices increased 3.6%.

“Housing markets will be hit differently depending on the region. Yes, Houston would be hit harder, but Midland-Odessa would be hit even more,” said Torres. “Smaller economies are more volatile because they are less diversified.”

Another area that might see an economic downturn is the border because of a slowdown in commercial trade with Mexico.

“[Regions] like El Paso, McAllen, Laredo and Brownsville will also be hit hard because they weren’t doing that well before the COVID-19 sudden stop, and their economies will also be affected by the recession in the Mexican economy,” Torres said.

Statewide, physical home showings are down between 38% and 44%, according to Texas Realtors Chairman Cindi Bulla.

“We don’t yet know what percentage of that downturn is a reflection of our members’ commitment to narrowing down selections through virtual showings, sellers declining to allow their homes to be shown, or buyers unwilling or unable to move forward at this time,” Bulla said.

Statewide home sales data for March is not available yet, but researchers say prices should be stable, at least in the first months of the crisis.

“Home prices are sticky, and it’s difficult for them to decline drastically,” said Torres. “Economists are now expecting a U-shaped recession and recovery.”

What happens with Texans’ jobs after the public health crisis subsides will be a key driver of what happens with home sales and values.

“It’s too soon to predict the market impact of this disruption, but its duration will be highly determinant,” said Bulla. “Demand is heavily influenced by employment numbers, and those numbers will depend on how long our employers can sustain under shelter-in-place orders.”

In the meantime, the Department of Housing and Urban Development suspended foreclosures and evictions for mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration until the end of April. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored institutions that back mortgages, are doing the same for at least two months. The Texas Supreme Court also halted evictions until April 30, and many local governments extended similar measures.

But some fear these policies are postponing a larger problem: the delinquencies that might come from unemployed homeowners.

“That’s when you can have falling prices,” Torres said. “[Homeowners] might try to sell a home at the best price that they can, and that might be with a discount, and that could have an effect on home values.”

Comptroller Glenn Hegar said last month that the state’s unemployment rate could be headed for double digits, which could exceed the historic high of 1986’s 9.2% unemployment rate. Torres said that banks need to prepare for this scenario by, for example, giving two or three months free of pay and then adding them at the end of the contract. But even that might not be enough for people who are unemployed for longer periods of time.

“Mortgage debt will continue to exist and is not going away,” said Torres. “This is going to be an important issue that we are going to face after the sudden stop [of the economy] ends.”

Disclosure: The Texas Association of Builders, Texas Realtors, and the Texas A&M Real Estate Center have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. 


The Houston Association of Realtors has been making changes to help keep the residential real estate market going amid the coronavirus outbreak while also keeping people safe.

HAR President and CEO Bob Hale spoke at a Tuesday, March 24, Harris County Commissioners Court meeting about the need to include residential and commercial real estate among the list of “essential” services exempt from Harris County’s new “stay home, work smart” order. Currently, $2.4 billion of residential real estate is pending sale, with $800 million scheduled to close in the next 10 days, HAR said in a statement.

When Harris County’s written order was released Tuesday afternoon, it classified real estate services among professional services that are essential “when necessary to assist in compliance with legally mandated activities or to further essential businesses, essential government functions, or critical infrastructure.” Even before the order was released, HAR already was developing a platform for virtual open houses and virtual showings, per the statement. The platform would allow customers to watch the tours and open houses on HAR.com at scheduled times, and HAR members would then be able to share the recordings on their agencies’ websites and social media.

“The safety of our members, their clients and families is the most important thing to us during this difficult time,” HAR said.

Even before Harris County’s March 24 order, HAR has been taking steps to adapt amid the pandemic. On March 20, HAR announced that information about open houses would not be displayed on HAR.com for most Texas markets, including Houston and Austin, effective immediately.

“Most of the national real estate franchises and many large brokers have either canceled all in-person open houses or are strongly encouraging their agents not to hold them,” HAR said in a March 20 press release. “Realtors are urged to utilize virtual open houses and video tours to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.”

Many Realtors told the Houston Business Journal last week that they were canceling open houses and opting to show their listings via apps like FaceTime and Skype. Others have begun to post video tours of properties online.


The par 3, like the rest of the course, also is deep inside the 100-year floodplain. Cypress Creek, which forms the club’s southern and western boundaries, jumped its banks and flooded the course in the Memorial Day and Tax Day storms. Four feet of water filled the clubhouse during Hurricane Harvey; it did not fully recede from the course for two weeks.

The club’s frustrated owner last week sold the 27-acre site containing the clubhouse, tennis courts and swimming pool for $11.5 million to the Harris County Flood Control District, which plans to raze the buildings. The county plans eventually to acquire the remaining 206 acres of the club and course and use the site for massive detention basins.

The initial transaction is emblematic of the county’s all-of-the-above approach to flood control. As engineers search for places to store stormwater, especially in heavily developed areas, the flood control district increasingly is turning to golf courses.

“Well over 600 homes experienced flooding in the general vicinity of Raveneaux Country Club in our recent flood events, from 2015 to 2019,” said Matt Zeve, the flood control district’s deputy director. “There’s a large need for stormwater detention volume in the Cypress Creek watershed.”

With an influx of capital from the $2.5 billion bond voters approved in 2018, the flood control district has more cash for a land acquisition than at any point in its history and golf courses often are ideal sites for detention projects, Zeve said. They frequently are located next to bayous, abut neighborhoods in need of protection and already are cleared of trees. They also have a single owner, allowing for a quicker acquisition than the county’s typical piecemeal approach to purchasing flood-prone properties.

A Chronicle analysis of the county’s interactive floodplain map found more than 30 Harris County courses at least partly inside the 100-year floodplain, from municipal links to the private Golf Club of Houston, which hosts an annual PGA Tour event.

Harris County’s push for better flood protection, made more urgent after Harvey flooded more than 200,000 homes in 2017, comes at a time when Americans are playing fewer rounds of golf. About 10 percent of courses in the United States closed between 2006 and 2018, according to the National Golf Foundation, a research firm for the industry.

A glut of course building in the 1980s and ‘90s and a 30 percent decline in golfers since 2000 have been major causes of club closures. Houston’s climate is a blessing and a curse for course owners; tee times are available year-round, though several clubs have been subjected to repeated flooding.

Harris County decided against rebuilding the Bear Creek Golf World course after it was swamped by Harvey. The storm also inundated Kingwood Cove Golf Club for the third time in two years, convincing the owners to sell the parcel on the San Jacinto River to developers. The City of Houston closed the money-losing Brock Park course after it flooded in 2016.

Voluntary buyouts

Zeve said several courses have approached the county about selling out. Ongoing negotiations are secret until a deal is reached, he said, though he encouraged interested owners to call the flood control district. The county is open to deals where courses can remain open while helping reduce flooding, he said.

“If a golf club wants to re-do their course … so that during a storm event, that course can temporarily store some stormwater, and maybe provide some flood damage reduction benefit, we’re happy to partner,” Zeve said.

Sometimes, flooding experts and residents in vulnerable neighborhoods try to move the process along. Phil Bedient, a professor at Rice University’s severe storm think tank, said much of Meyerland would be protected if Westwood Golf Club and Braeburn Country Club on Brays Bayou were used to store floodwater. He proposed partnerships in which clubs agree to host detention projects and the county commits to repairing courses after storms. He said the county should seize needed property, if necessary.

“It’s better to clean up a golf course than thousands of homes,” Bedient said.

The general manager at Braeburn declined to comment; his counterpart at Westwood did not respond to requests for comment.

Zeve said he sometimes gets frantic calls from course owners who suspect the county is trying to force them to sell. He assures them all course buyouts are voluntary.

Former golf courses also are attractive acquisitions for developers, as they often are the only open parcels in densely populated neighborhoods. Commercial real estate developer MetroNational bought the former Pine Crest Country Club in Spring Branch and in 2017 flipped the property to a homebuilder.

Houston City Council unanimously approved permitting 900 homes on the site, which sits almost entirely inside the 100-year floodplain. Several civic groups opposed the project and questioned city leaders’ commitment to flood protection. Just weeks earlier, council members enacted stricter floodplain building standards.

Zeve said the flood control district would have liked an opportunity to purchase the Pine Crest plot for a flood mitigation project. Ed Browne, founder of advocacy group Residents Against Flooding, said Pine Crest was a missed opportunity. He said the group “wholeheartedly supports conversion of golf course lands to regional detention basins.”

The county jumped at the chance to dig detention ponds on the former Inwood Forest Country Club on White Oak Bayou. The City of Houston purchased the 227-acre site in 2011 to build two basins; the county joined the project three years ago to construct an additional 10. The volume of water that can be stored there exceeds that of the Astrodome. In southeast Houston, the Clear Lake City Water Authority partnered with a nonprofit to convert a former golf course into a 200-acre detention pond.

Final round

The county’s deal with Raveneaux allows the club a year to wind down operations and sell equipment.

A foursome of retirees, all longtime members, said during a recent weekday round they doubted a detention basin would provide many benefits.

“They’re going to buy these big, expensive buildings, tear them down, and put a hole in the ground,” said Ben Mason on the 14th fairway. “It won’t hold much water.”

Bernie Hollenshead said the flood control district instead should build a long-debated third reservoir in northwest Harris County, to complement the existing Addicks and Barker dams. The quartet conceded, however, they are biased in favor of keeping their tee times.

The shame in the Raveneaux sale, club Vice President Lou Mills said, is the course never has been in better shape. Greens and sand traps are in pristine condition, and the course looked verdant on a recent soggy morning.

He conceded Cypress Creek poses a constant threat, however. Walking along the second hole, he pointed to a section of the waterway that swelled during a recent three-quarter-inch downpour. He said residents of the Champions Forest neighborhood north of the club, where tony homes top $1.3 million, are wary when the forecast includes rain.

“Every time there’s a rain event here, they’re all freaking out,” Mills said. “The minute you get rainfall, this becomes a raging river.”

Harris County Commissioner Jack Cagle, whose Precinct 4 includes Raveneaux, said he has sympathy for residents who bemoan the community’s loss when the club closes. The stately clubhouse, modeled after a French chateau, has held weddings, retirement parties, and other events since the late 1970s.

The prospect of providing badly needed flood protection on the site, however, is too golden an opportunity to pass up as neighborhoods along Cypress Creek continue to fare poorly in storms, he said. Cagle’s own home, three miles downstream from Raveneaux, flooded during Harvey.